Preseason Rankings
Utah Valley
Western Athletic
2018-19
Overall
Predictive Rating+0.7#152
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace69.0#182
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+0.1#165
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+0.6#148
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 16.2% 25.9% 14.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.4% 2.0% 0.2%
Average Seed 13.6 12.9 13.8
.500 or above 71.8% 89.6% 68.4%
.500 or above in Conference 85.2% 92.9% 83.8%
Conference Champion 19.0% 27.9% 17.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.6% 0.1% 0.7%
First Four0.9% 1.3% 0.9%
First Round15.8% 25.4% 13.9%
Second Round2.4% 4.9% 1.9%
Sweet Sixteen0.5% 1.1% 0.4%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: BYU (Away) - 16.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0.1 - 1.10.1 - 1.1
Quad 1b0.3 - 1.80.4 - 2.9
Quad 21.1 - 2.91.5 - 5.8
Quad 33.9 - 3.75.4 - 9.5
Quad 411.5 - 2.716.8 - 12.2


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2018 63   @ BYU L 66-74 16%    
  Nov 11, 2018 59   @ St. Mary's L 65-73 15%    
  Nov 16, 2018 144   @ Utah St. L 71-72 37%    
  Nov 19, 2018 193   Hartford W 72-70 58%    
  Nov 21, 2018 189   Long Beach St. W 77-75 58%    
  Nov 24, 2018 271   North Dakota W 78-71 81%    
  Dec 01, 2018 200   Denver W 71-68 69%    
  Dec 06, 2018 66   @ Arizona L 69-76 19%    
  Dec 08, 2018 326   @ Northern Arizona W 75-64 76%    
  Dec 15, 2018 147   @ Weber St. L 71-72 38%    
  Dec 19, 2018 247   Idaho St. W 76-70 77%    
  Dec 22, 2018 258   Sam Houston St. W 72-66 79%    
  Dec 29, 2018 91   @ Fresno St. L 67-72 26%    
  Jan 03, 2019 114   @ Grand Canyon L 69-72 31%    
  Jan 05, 2019 204   @ Cal St. Bakersfield W 68-65 51%    
  Jan 12, 2019 244   Seattle W 73-68 77%    
  Jan 17, 2019 311   UT Rio Grande Valley W 82-73 85%    
  Jan 19, 2019 93   New Mexico St. L 68-72 45%    
  Jan 24, 2019 279   @ UMKC W 76-69 63%    
  Jan 26, 2019 350   @ Chicago St. W 83-66 88%    
  Jan 30, 2019 288   California Baptist W 76-68 81%    
  Feb 14, 2019 93   @ New Mexico St. L 68-72 27%    
  Feb 16, 2019 311   @ UT Rio Grande Valley W 82-73 70%    
  Feb 21, 2019 350   Chicago St. W 83-66 95%    
  Feb 23, 2019 279   UMKC W 76-69 79%    
  Feb 26, 2019 244   @ Seattle W 73-68 57%    
  Mar 02, 2019 288   @ California Baptist W 76-68 64%    
  Mar 07, 2019 114   Grand Canyon L 69-72 51%    
  Mar 09, 2019 204   Cal St. Bakersfield W 68-65 70%    
Projected Record 16.8 - 12.2 10.4 - 5.6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Western Athletic Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.6 2.5 5.6 5.9 3.5 0.9 19.0 1st
2nd 0.2 1.6 5.8 8.1 4.7 1.2 21.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 3.3 7.7 7.8 2.6 0.3 22.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.7 3.3 6.4 4.2 0.8 0.0 15.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.6 3.2 4.0 2.4 0.2 10.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.6 1.9 2.6 1.1 0.0 6.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 1.2 1.2 0.3 0.0 3.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 9th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.2 2.4 3.9 6.8 8.8 12.3 13.8 15.0 13.3 10.6 7.1 3.5 0.9 Total



Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 0.9    0.9
15-1 100.0% 3.5    3.3 0.2
14-2 83.3% 5.9    4.4 1.5 0.0
13-3 53.0% 5.6    2.5 2.6 0.5 0.0
12-4 19.2% 2.5    0.8 1.2 0.4 0.1
11-5 3.7% 0.6    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0
10-6 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
9-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
8-8 0.0%
Total 19.0% 19.0 12.0 5.6 1.2 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 0.9% 74.9% 66.8% 8.1% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 24.4%
15-1 3.5% 61.2% 56.8% 4.4% 12.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.3 10.1%
14-2 7.1% 43.5% 42.6% 1.0% 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.1 0.8 0.3 0.0 4.0 1.7%
13-3 10.6% 29.6% 29.1% 0.5% 13.5 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.9 1.1 0.4 0.1 7.5 0.7%
12-4 13.3% 21.7% 21.7% 0.0% 14.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.0 0.7 0.4 10.4 0.0%
11-5 15.0% 13.8% 13.8% 14.6 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.7 0.4 12.9
10-6 13.8% 8.4% 8.4% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.3 12.6
9-7 12.3% 5.1% 5.1% 15.4 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 11.7
8-8 8.8% 2.5% 2.5% 15.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 8.6
7-9 6.8% 2.5% 2.5% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 6.6
6-10 3.9% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 0.0 3.8
5-11 2.4% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 2.3
4-12 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 1.2
3-13 0.4% 0.4
2-14 0.1% 0.1
1-15 0.0% 0.0
0-16 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 16.2% 15.9% 0.4% 13.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.8 2.3 3.4 4.1 3.1 1.9 83.8 0.4%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 2.9 3.6 96.4